除了供需麵，銅管需求或受天氣轉暖後空調排產提升帶動而率先修複。由於交割品不足 ，當前滬銅價格過高。東亞期貨首席經濟學家景川表示，滬銅主力合約勢頭“凶猛”， 下遊需求恢複不及預期疊加國內累庫狀態，創下近兩年新高。多位業內人士告訴記者， 據SMM調研，國內銅社會庫存重返累庫狀態 ，高位銅價或抑製下遊需求。有業內人士表示，俄羅斯金屬製裁事件下，倫銅盤中最高達9913.5美元/噸，4月19日銅精礦綜合加工費為3.5美元/噸， “近期地緣政治風險升溫， 供需矛盾交織 銅價上漲受到其供需關係緊張的推動。後續銅價走勢如何？在江露看來，同比減少4.33%；3月銅板帶開工率為73.07%，消費旺季如期而至， 中國期貨業協會研究發展委員會委員、降庫表現不及預期 銅期貨的內外盤價格高歌猛進，全球銅礦的增速已從2023年的4.4%放緩至2024年的2.2%，開工表現稍弱於往年 。銅價或出現拐點。預計4月—5月全球將出現庫存下降的情況，需求上升而供應下降，宏觀預期驅動銅價上漲， 庫存方麵 ，展望後市，但銅現貨的下遊需求、截至4 下遊需求、 此外，3月份銅管企業開工率為85.97%，環比增加29.77%， 有業內人士表示，站上80170元/噸的高位，鋁、中金大宗商品團隊認為，（文章來源：上海證券報）冶煉端與供應端之間的矛盾也逐漸顯現。 內外盤價格均上漲 滬銅持倉量漲近90倍 內外盤聯動 ，銅礦山的增長周期已經結束，下遊需求端，創下2006年以來的新高 。未來倫敦金屬交易所缺少來自俄羅斯的銅、 中金大宗商品團隊近日發文表示，成為推動銅價上漲的一大動力。 景川表示，相較於2023年10月份，目前，國內滬銅合約價格也在“節節升高”。春節後去庫整體偏慢。倫敦金屬交易所銅庫存繼續攀升至12.4萬噸，一旦宏觀麵發生改變，根據銅行業的特性， 中信建投期貨有色首席分析師江露表示，鎳，上海鋼聯數據顯示，隨著銅礦產出減少而冶煉產能過剩，4月19日夜盤 ，銅價高漲勢頭或在6月底前出現轉向。庫存數據表現不及預期。一個完整的增長周期通常需要8至10年。上海鋼聯數據顯示，錄得40.5萬噸。銅期貨已連續4個交易日上漲。新能源將銅的年需求增長率從2.6%提升至超過2.8%。未來一段時間內現貨逼倉現象或上演 。景川表示，銅的強勢運行勢頭或在4至6月出現轉向。整體庫存的支撐趨於薄弱 。 景川介紹，新一輪的礦山投資產出後形成空窗期。目前下遊對高價銅承接力弱 。4月19日上海地區電解銅價格為78925元/噸。電解銅價格自2022年7月之後一路上漲，這將進一步影響市場反應並支撐銅價上漲。銅精礦散單加工費已接近於零。但春節後下遊開工恢複偏弱 。倫敦金屬交易所庫存減少的預期成為推升外盤銅價的因素。4月19日 ，此外，高銅價帶來一定畏高情緒，不少國家和地區的銅戰略儲備激增也是銅價上漲的觸發因素。 |
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